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2044 United States Presidential Election
The 2016 United States presidential election was the 65th quadrennial American presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2044. The Republican ticket of California governor Victor Banker and Alabama Senator Carol Heng-Gonzales defeated the Democratic ticket of U.S. Senator from New York Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Illinois Governor Jack Johnson. Banker took office as the 50th president, and Heng-Gonzales as the 53rd vice president, on January 20, 2045. In the primaries, Banker defeated former U.S. Senator from Texas Ted Cruz, with most major Republicans declining to enter the race due to fears of losing in the general. Ocasio-Cortez narrowly won on the first convention ballot amongst broad opposition from moderate Democrats. The election was dominated by the ongoing Bull Depression, as well as international tensions in the Asia-Pacific region. Banker ran on his 'New Conservative' populist message while painting Ocasio-Cortez's policies as the 'natural successors' to those of unpopular incumbent president Mark Towers. Ocasio-Cortez emphasized her longstanding support of socialism and pocketbook issues in the face of the crisis, repeatedly denouncing her opponent's "heartless ambition." The tone of the general election campaign was widely seen as the most divisive and negative in recent history. Banker faced attacks over his history as a businessman, political maneuvering as governor, and his birth and citizenship in Belgium. Ocasio-Cortez largely remained clear of controversy, yet her approval ratings fell substantially as the campaign progressed. Ocasio-Cortez held the lead in every academic pre-election nationwide poll and in almost all swing state polls. Many commentators compared Banker's victory to that of Donald Trump in 2016 or Harry S. Truman in 1948 as one of the greatest political upsets in modern U.S. history. Banker received 1.6 million more votes nationwide, a margin of 0.8%. He also won the electoral college with 295 electors from 28 states, including upset victories in the South and West. Ultimately, Banker received 295 electoral votes and Ocasio-Cortez garnered 241, with two faithless electors from Georgia defecting. Banker remains the youngest president ever at the time of inauguration, as well as the wealthiest. He flipped 7 states from the 2040 election, including Arizona, South Carolina and Florida, as well as his home state of California. Background Article 2 of the United States Constitution provides that the President and Vice Presidentof the United States must be natural-born citizens of the United States, at least 35 years old, and residents of the United States for a period of at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the political parties, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. Traditionally, the primary elections are indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the president and vice president. President Mark Towers, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Maryland, was ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to the restrictions of the Twenty-Second Amendment; in accordance with Section 1 of the Twntieth Amendment, his term expired at noon EST on January 20, 2045. Nominations 'Republican Party' Only three major candidates entered the race, starting with Ted Cruz on January 2, 2043. This was the smallest presidential primary field for any political party in American history without an incumbent president of their party. Most potenital candidates feared the appeal of Ocasio-Cortez's socialist policies in the midst of the Depression. Prior to the Iowa Caucases on February 1, 2044, no candidates withdrew. In Iowa, Banker came in second to Cruz, after which Rodriguez withdrew due to his poor performance in the state. Following a dead heat in the New Hampshire, Banker overwhelmed Cruz three-to-one in California. On March 1, 2044, the first of three "Super Tuesday" primaries, Cruz won Alaska, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Mississippi while narrowly losing his home state of Texas. Banker's surprise victory in Texas dominated news coverage of the night, despite Cruz having won more delegates. Banker and Cruz continued to battle through March, with Cruz winning races in the South while Banker racked up large delegate leads elsewhere. Banker became the presumptive nominee by scoring landslide victories in Pennsylvania and three other Eastern states in April. Without any path to victory, Cruz suspended his campaign and endorsed Banker. Banker was the odds-on favorite to win the nomination prior to the primaries and led in nearly every nationwide poll. 'Democratic Party' Only Ocasio-Cortez formally ran for the Democratic nomination, with most candidates fearing her formidable following and the unpopularity of incumbent president Mark Towers. A group of "Liberty Democrats," whose stated goal was to "stop a socialist presidency" secured the names of prominent Democrats on primary ballots in every state, hoping to force a brokered convention. These groups quickly gained substantial support from Democratic megadonors uncomfortable with socialism, prompting mockery from Ocasio-Cortez and her allies. In an effort to protect their presumptive nominee from party infighting, Ocasio-Cortez allies in various Democratic state committees were able to cancel 29 of 54 planned primary contests. This wound up helping her opponents, who were able to draft slates of anti-AOC delegates from states Ocasio-Cortez would have won. At the time of the last primary in June 2044, Ocasio-Cortez had not accumulated enough pledged delegates to clinch the nomination. At the Democratic Convention in July, enough Superdelegates fearing an embarassing contested convention swung toward Ocasioo-Cortez to guaruntee her nomination on the first ballot. Many delegate speeches referred to Ocasio-Cortez as "Madame President," as, at the time, her organizational and polling advantages seemed insurmountable. Incumbent Democratic president Mark Towers notably refused to endorse Ocasio-Cortez or to attend the convention. General election campaign The Bull Depression dominated the campaign, with both candidates centering their campaigns on the crisis. Ocasio-Cortez emphasized her longstanding support of socialistic policies she claimed could solve the crisis. Some of her proposals included universal government-run healthcare, a wealth tax on millionaires, a Green New Deal, higher tariffs, temporary closure of stock and bond markets, the nationalization of several major industries, and more government support to the needy through affordable housing programs and food stamps. Not all Democrats enthusiastically backed Ocasio-Cortez, but the unpopularity of the incumbent Towers was viewed as discrediting any more moderate Democrat. Banker's campaign centered around his record as governor of California and a "return to true capitalism." He emphasized that, thanks to a combination of pro-business, pro-environment, and 'pro-individual' policies passed during his time as governor, California was not hit as hard by the crisis as other states. His proposals included radically lower individual taxes, the restructuring or demolition of government programs, a balanced budget, a more open money supply, and joint-venture national infrastructure programs. Banker repeatedly characterized Ocasio-Cortez's policies as the "natural continuation" of the "leftward shift" that he accredited with causing the downturn. Banker set a vigorous pace on the campaign trail and on the fundraising circuit, ultimately holding three times as many events as his opponent and outraising her 2 to 1. The campaign was decidedly negative, with both candidates using media interviews and speeches largely to criticize the other. The first major controversy of the campaign was when Ocasio-Cortez backers accused Banker (who was born in Belgium to American parents) of not being a natural-born citizen and thus ineligible for the presidency. Ocasio-Cortez herself quickly picked up the claims. Banker responded with his famous "textbook hypocrisy" speech, discussing his personal battles with identity as well as accusing Ocasio-Cortez of "acting no better than the anti-immigrant skinheads she claims to hate." The response, while divisive, was broadly characterized as strong. The episode is widely viewed as the turning point in the campaign after which the approval ratings of Ocasio-Cortez steadily declined. Later in the campaign, foreign policy began to take a larger role, when a naval skirmish between U.S. and Chinese forces on September 14th killed twenty Americans. Ocasio-Cortez was criticized with her initial response urging the U.S. to be "more inwardly focused" while Banker was also said to have missed the mark with his bellicose remarks after the event. As the campaign progressed, Banker's foreign policy agenda became more refined while Ocasio-Cortez's remained vague. There were two presidential debates during the campaign. Banker was widely viewed as the winner, with post-debate polls for both events showed anywhere between 61% and 76% of respondents saying he won. The debates were punctuated with Banker's repeated attacks on Ocasio-Cortez's positions and her record. Many commentators referred to Banker as "the moderator" as he often asked Ocasio-Cortez to respond to specific questions, including at one point asking her to do basic math on stage. He also noted that Ocasio-Cortez had "not sponsored a single bill that became law" in her 26 years in Congress. Ocasio-Cortez's responses were characterized by pundits as "unprepared" and "disorganized." She attempted to attack Banker on his business record and his "heartless ambition," yet none of the attacks garnered much media attention comparing to her own poor performances. There was also one vice-presidential debate, with Carol Heng-Gonzales widely viewed as the winner. However, few watched the debate and media coverage was limited. Both campaigns and groups supporting them saturated the airwaves with attack ads, together spending nearly $1.5 billion by the end of the campaign. 2044 remains the most expensive presidential campaign in history, with almost $3 billion spent. Results Turnout on Election Day was the highest in decades at 64.6%. Both campaigns had 'armies' of over one million volunteers, and straight-ticket voting (voters voting for the same party in all races on the ballot) reached an all time high. Exit polls had Ocasio Cortez winning the popular vote by between 2 and 5 percent while winning the electoral college with at least 300 electoral votes. The first news outlet to declare Banker the winner was CNN at 2:45AM ET the next morning. At the time, several states were still too close to call. Banker's victory is largely accredited to a late surge in support from more educated voters, particularly Asian-Americans, notching him key victories in the South and West (including his home state of California). Close states States with margin of victory under 1% (17 electoral votes) # Georgia 0.5% (D win) States with margin of victory under 5% (130 electoral votes) # South Carolina 1.2% (R win) # Missouri 1.4% (R win) # Indiana 2.4% (R win) # Louisiana 2.6% (R win) (tipping-point state) # Virginia 3.3% (D win) # North Carolina 3.7% (D win) # New Jersey 4.0% (D win) # Colorado 4.7% (R win) # Mississippi 4.8% (R win) # Florida 4.9% (R win) States with margin of victory under 10% # Hawaii 5.5% (R win) # Washington 5.5% (D win) # Connecticut 5.55% (D win) # Alabama 5.9% (R win) # New Hampshire 6% (D win) # Pennsylvania 6.1% (D win) # California 6.7% (R win) # Oregon 6.9% (D win) # Minnesota 7.3% (D win) # Kentucky 8.1% (R win) # Ohio 8.3% (D win) # Tennessee 8.7% (R win) # Iowa 9.3% (D win) # Illinois 9.4% (D win) # New York 9.5% (D win) # Montana 9.6% (R win) # Arkansas 9.9% (R win)